Conferences

MCE-2024: return of traditions

Continuation. Starts at No. 6, 8

"Biophysics, in addition to meeting its own issues of interdisciplinary science," A.B.Rubin (MSU) began his report "Current challenges and horizons of biophysics," "has historically performed the role of an outpost for the introduction of techniques of the exact sciences - physics, mathematics, physical chemistry - in the field of biology. Biophysics is the science of elementary fundamental physical, physicochemical interactions that underlie biological processes. It means that the ideology of biophysics is physical, but the object is biological. A paradoxical situation has arisen: in all the fundamental problems and their solutions that we have recently observed in physical and chemical biology, modern concepts of the exact sciences have not been systematically used. The paradox is that biophysics of the 21st century, in its theoretical, molecular ideas, is based on the classical concepts of physical chemistry, developed at the end of the 19th - beginning of the 20th centuries." A.B.Rubin dwelled on this problem, based on the work of the Department of Biophysics. It's interesting that man has evolved to have thousands of differences from his original self, but if you look at his basic molecular machines that underlie his metabolism, they are the same. It means that all macromolecular complexes that are responsible for energy transformations occurred at the earliest stages of evolution and turned out to be necessary and sufficient to provide organisms that arose after millions and billions of years of evolution!

D.E.Fesenko, Academician of IAA, Editor-in-Chief of the journal "Architectural Bulletin", in his report "Architecture from Utopias to Realities of the XXI Century. Synergetic Approach" demonstrated a number of models, the first of which, describing the evolution of storeys in Soviet construction, was built in the 1980s. During the Soviet period, architecture switched from low-rise to high-rise development seven times. More modern models consider the architectural process in its integrity. The model of evolution of architectural utopias of the 20th - early 21st centuries in Russia considers the architectural process as a series of successive waves. Each next wave is built "on the bones" of the previous one, turning the disadvantages into advantages. Utopias of the last 20 years warn the society about the impending social breakdown, but only the global economic crisis of 2008 falls under the term of macro-historical breakdown - the end of 2010s. "Economists, sociologists, political scientists and other specialists have points of professional contact. Architectural historians stew in their own juice. Architectural science could complement and clarify social and humanitarian knowledge in addition to its main subject - the development and improvement of the human environment," the speaker summarised.

The report by G.G.Malinetsky (Institute of Applied Mathematics) was titled "Self-organization, synergetics and temptations of artificial intelligence". The theory of self-organization and joint action (synergetics - from the Greek "joint action") becomes a key concept of the 21st century. It involves the emergence of new qualities in the whole that the parts do not have, as well as the cooperation of scientists from different disciplines in meeting key tasks. "We are the only species that can bring any amount of resources to a task. Self-organization is the key to success," he is confident. S.P.Kurdyumov, the founder of the theory of synergetics in Russia, said: "Wait a little and you will see that the development of the theory of self-organization will result in a real revolution." Today, with the emergence of neural networks, the author believes, this is what is happening.

It is a big mistake, as G.G.Malinetsky noted, to think that our affairs are good and will be even better in the future. If before the 17th century the increase of the world economy was 0.2-0.4%, then the first industrial revolution gave a jump of 2% and the second - of 2.3%. The third industrial revolution that began in 2020, currently develops as in the 17th century - only 0.4% increase and after 2030, only 0.2% is predicted. The universal scientist G.W.Leibniz that invented a mechanical adding machine back in the 17th century that in addition to the main four mathematical operations, raised to a power and extracted the root, called mathematics the science of possible worlds. The future, he believed, belonged to counting machines. Today, Leibniz's dream turns into reality. Computer productivity has increased 10¹⁵ times in just over a hundred years; today, there are over 6 billion computers operating in the world. Nobel Prize winner in economics R.Solow (USA) asked the question: in what areas has computerization given a decisive advantage to the United States? It turned out - none. If before the early 1980s the growth rate of multifactor productivity increased, then with the advent of information technology they decrease. Stanislaw Lem said: incredibly fast computers make mistakes incredibly quickly. And there is also the temptation of hybrid wars. Humanity needs a dialogue of civilizations. The same Lem believed that humanity has a huge chance of dying.

With the implementation of the artificial intelligence project, the temptation of a world government arises: whoever takes the forefront in this area will become the ruler of the world. In Russia, funding for work on the development of artificial intelligence is 350 times lower than in China. And in China, a social rating system has been operating for more than five years - an automated system of norms and legislative, moral, social and cultural rules, the implementation of which is encouraged and violation is punished. Unlike the Western system, with the help of which banks estimate a citizen's creditworthiness, the Chinese social system extends to all spheres of society. Its application already shows that the ethical issues of using artificial intelligence and its interaction with humans can be considered the problem of the century. The author recalled Leibniz's statement: counting machines will judge people.

Today, the era of genetic engineering, gene editing and personal genomics has begun. The $3.2 billion the US has invested in the Human Genome Project has already generated $800 billion in profits. There is a temptation to give birth to children to order. This is what will lead humanity to the end, the American philosopher F.Fukuyama in his book "The End of History and the Last Man" says. There is a temptation to create a supermind, a man-god. In the 21st century, people and machines will become one (and the beginning of this process is already demonstrated to us by Elon Musk that chips people - O.T.), not weapons and technology will create an advantage, but bodies, brains and intelligence.

Today, there is a temptation of sweet ignorance. "The Russian State University for the Humanities is proud of its student that was able to string a few words together and artificial intelligence wrote a diploma for him," the speaker complained. "Today, our schoolchildren are in the 30th place in Western tests in mathematics, reading and reading comprehension. Stalin's school reform ensured the growth of school knowledge until the 1960s and later, the school reform of the 1970s resulted in the complication of textbooks and a catastrophic deterioration in the quality of students' knowledge." How are we different from artificial intelligence? Our trump card is genius. We have the ability to make choices and our choices create the world.

V.S.Smolin (IPM) continued the topic with a report "What to do one step away from strong artificial intelligence"? Artificial intelligence (AI) will be whatever we make it. We tend to attribute human properties to machines and blame them for all our troubles. In the twentieth century, humanity mastered atomic energy, space, developed organic chemistry and much more. Information technologies develop rapidly. At the beginning of this century, hopes were placed on the convergence of sciences, the NBIC approach (convergence, the unification of the achievements of nano, bio, information and cognitive technologies into a single field of knowledge). By 2010, the neural network revolution in AI began, becoming a development leader by 2022. "90% of the participants believes that strong AI will never be created. I believe it will happen in one and a half to two years," the speaker noted.

But we don't have to wait for everything to be done for us and everything will be fine. They will do everything and it will be worse! It is known that the average IQ ranges from 85 to 115, with 14% reaching 130. For Nobel prize winner Terence Chi Shen Tao, it is 230. Today, technologies are already possible that allow, using in vitro fertilization and preimplantation genetic diagnosis (that is identical to accelerated genetic selection), to create individuals with a given high IQ. But there are also gene editing technologies. The author believes that we are entering a new era of civilization. Humanity needs strong AI as the next stage of self-organization.

A new research area in the conference topic includes sanctions. T.A.Komkina (CEMI) analyzed the structural changes occurring in the country's economy under sanctions restrictions, using the example of the Iranian economy. The republic has been under sanctions for 40 years. As of 1 January, the leader in the number of sanctions imposed is Russia - 17937 sanctions, Iran is the second (4191), followed by Syria (2643), North Korea (2133), Belarus (1155), Myanmar, Venezuela and lastly, Cuba with 208 sanctions. At the same time, until 23 February, 2022, Russia ranked the second, having 2754 sanctions.

In Iran, sanctions were first imposed by the United States after the Islamic Revolution, when the American embassy was seized. In 2000, trade sanctions were eased and in 2010, Europe joined the US sanctions, Iran's assets were blocked and in 2012, the republic was disconnected from SWIFT. After the conclusion of the "nuclear deal" in 2015, some of the sanctions were lifted, but D.Trump that came to power in 2018, restored them and new ones were introduced in 2022-2023 (against shipping and steel companies).

The share of the oil and gas sector in Iran's GDP is 23% (in Russia, according to Rosstat for 2021 - 17.4%), manufacturing industry - 20.5% (in Russia - 16%). The fluctuations in Iran's GDP are very significant. According to the World Bank, over the past ten years, the Islamic Republic's GDP has decreased by 39.7%. Inflation rates from 1961 to 2022 ranged from 4.7% to 56%, averaging 19% per year. The Central Bank of Iran unsuccessfully tried to fight rising inflation by increasing the key rate and as a result, fixed it at 18%.

There are several exchange rates between the US dollar and the Iranian rial in Iran. The official one has been fixed since July 2018 at the level of 42 thousand rials. The market, operating on the black market, has grown more than 12 times over the past five years. A special rate for foreign trade is 15-20% lower than the market rate. The share of medium and high-tech products in Iran's total merchandise exports amounted to 33% in 2021. In Russia, this figure is 30% (over the period 1996-2021 it decreased by 20%). Parallel imports operate in Iran. When the sanctions began, there were high hopes for it, so certain industries did not develop. Today, the republic's economy experiences a breakthrough in development, unemployment has decreased from 12% to 9%. A significant reduction in oil exports in the republic has resulted in a rapid depreciation of the national currency that was accompanied by rising inflation and a decline in the standard of living of the population. However, the construction of oil refineries and petrochemical plants has become an effective means of countering "oil" sanctions.

Within the framework of the conference, an anniversary meeting was held in honor of the 225th anniversary of the birth of A.S.Pushkin, at which professors of the Faculty of Philology of Moscow State University Yu.L.Obolenskaya and M.Yu.Sidorova made reports. From the report of the biologist and writer Yu.D.Nechiporenko (Institute of Molecular Biology named after V.A.Engelhardt, Moscow) "The young years of Pushkin, or where the tale of Tsar Saltan came from", I learned interesting facts. The poet's father was not just a major, but a quartermaster that supplied the entire army during the War of 1812. When Pushkin studied at the Lyceum, parents were allowed to meet with their children only once a month. Maybe that's why Lotman and other Pushkin scholars conclude that Alexander's parents did not love him and he had a bad relationship with his father. However, when Alexander is going to marry Natalya Goncharova in 1831, Sergey Lvovich gives the dowry 40 thousand for the wedding. And soon after this, Pushkin writes "The tale of Tsar Saltan," in which the son finds his father. The conclusions that Pushkin scholars draw are not correct, as Yury Dmitrievich mentions.

The ending follows

Olga TARANTINA,
photo by Elena PUZYNINA